Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor, and the information contained in this post is not intended to be construed as financial advice. This is simply an anecdotal report of a personal project and does not imply that you should copy my strategy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Consult a certified professional if you need guidance with your own financial strategy.
If you’re not up-to-date and don’t feel like reading the previous blog post for all the details, here’s a summary:
- Doug and I each put $10,000 of our own money into the stock market by individually picking ten companies in which to invest.
- Because Doug is not an experienced investor, he solicited for help from his DougDoug community on Twitch to contribute to the decision-making process.
- I have low faith in the success of the stock market over the next year, so I took a more conservative route and bought into sectors that perform well during a recession; on the other hand, Doug’s Twitch chat seems to have not really stuck with an overarching plan, and instead just picked stocks that they generally liked or thought were good companies.
- Whichever portfolio has a higher balance after market close on January 23, 2023 wins. All profits get donated to charity, and the person with the lower portfolio balance has to do a punishment as voted on by Doug’s Twitch chat.
With all that out of the way, here is how our portfolios are doing:
As of today, my portfolio is beating Doug’s with a lead of $1,016.31.
My portfolio is generally hanging in there, with Pfizer and Waste Management being the biggest winners. Walmart had also been doing extremely well, but as you can see from the sparkline, it recently tanked after they (and Target Corp.) announced that their first-quarter earnings were worse than expected.
Doug, on the other hand, is going through a very rough patch in his portfolio. He had actually been doing well at first, but with Netflix committing commercial suicide and the general sell-off of technology stocks, things are not looking good for him.
I’m also tracking a few benchmarks to see how our portfolios would have been doing had we invested them in the broad stock market instead of picking our own individual stocks. My hedge-against-recession portfolio has actually been doing pretty well compared to the S&P 500, having consistently been higher than it over the past two months and beating it by $258.05 as of today. However, Doug is falling fairly far behind, at $758.26 in the negative compared to if he had just bought the S&P 500.
Bonds are generally considered a safe investment, but even bonds are dropping in price. I personally use Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) in my main investment portfolio, so I decided to use the ETF version BND as the benchmark. If Doug and I had invested in bonds instead of companies, Doug would have $1,078.37 more in his portfolio, while I would have only $62.06 more.
Investing internationally is another common way to diversify a portfolio, and I personally own a large chunk of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) in my investment portfolio, so I used the ETF version VXUS as our benchmark. If Doug and I had decided to go broad market international instead of investing domestically, Doug would have $849.49 more in his portfolio, while I would be down $166.82.
And finally, to keep things interesting, I also decided to do a benchmark with cryptocurrency. I selected the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), not only because I already personally own it in my regular investment portfolio, but also because it is a way to be able to track the health of the broader crypto market, as opposed to looking at just a single coin. As of today, the holdings of GDLC include about 65% Bitcoin; about 27% Ethereum; less than 2% each of Solana, Cardano, and Polakdot; and less than 1% each of Uniswap, Chainlink, Avalanche, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. If Doug and I had taken a risk and put that $10k into crypto instead, Doug would be down $1,984.69 more, while I would be down $3,001.00 more.
If you haven’t noticed yet, I switched the platform I use to track our stocks—I wasn’t fully satisfied with the features of my previous platform, so I decided to make my own using Google Sheets and Google Finance instead. Quotes from Google Finance can be up to 20 minutes behind, so it’s not viable to use for active trading, but for my purposes of wanting full customizability and the non-urgency of price updates, it works perfectly due to its integration with Google Sheets.
One of the features I was hoping for previously was to be able to chart our actual portfolio values over time, as opposed to only being able to chart percent changes; I made my own chart that sources from a table of the entire daily history of our portfolios, so now you can see the actual dollar amounts as the days progress.
My portfolio actually hadn’t been that stellar for a decent chunk of time, but you can see the point in early April at which I pull ahead and everything starts plummeting. Just like how it suddenly changed then, there is just as likely of a chance that it can suddenly change again in the future in the opposite direction. We’re still 8 months away from the end of the competition, and that’s a long time for unexpected things to happen, so I’m not getting too complacent.
In the meantime, I still think it’s pretty fun to keep tabs on our progress so we can will a higher power to move the stock market towards the favor of our own portfolio.